Yes We Did!!

When I created this site in the days following the Nomination of Barack Obama as the first African American candidate for the Presidency, and Sarah Palin as the Republican Vice Presidential candidate I was filled with a sense of fear, and urgency, at not letting the politics of fear and division continue. My family's support for Obama over the last several months has taken the form of several phone calls, dozens of email conversations, over 100 blog posts, more than $15,000 raised, and several thousand tears shed since the words "President-elect Barack Obama" flashed across my screen on Tuesday night.

I kept my four-year old son up to watch Obama's speech. Four years ago, as I bemoaned the fact that the Democrats' only argument for electing Kerry seemed to be "not Bush," I named my son Martin, in part in tribute to my mother's father, and in part in tribute to the many Martins who have stood up for what was right when it was not easy. I hoped that over the long haul, his name would remind him of a battle worth waging, and I never dreamed that one of the key battlegrounds of the fight for justice would be won so early in his young life. My six month-old daughter will never know a world in which women are not considered serious contenders for the highest offices.

This space has been a powerful cathartic for me, and has invited many of you into the conversation--more than 100 of you checked in on election day. The purpose of this site is now fulfilled, though.

Nevertheless, there is much work to be done, and a new conversation to be had about how to govern in a world mired in economic contraction and political confrontation. A few weeks ago I told you I was launching a sister site to keep the conversation going after the election. I hope you will join me there to explore how to forge a new kind of conversation about the issues that matter to us as we move ahead. While I have a progressive bent to my policy positions, I believe more strongly than ever that any future forged must be forged together.

Please join me to continue the conversation at middlegroundmatters.blogspot.com. May the conversation continue.

There Once Was a Man Named Obama...

The Washington Post ran a post-election Limerick contest yesterday. Here are some of the best:

pinkfire:
The Republican menu lacked drama,
So they served up a hot hockey mama.
But red meat on high heels
Is an unhealthy meal,
So, no thanks, I’ll be having Obama!

garyt23:
In the land of red, white and blue,
Rode a man who was black/white and new,
People questioned his range
When he named his horse "Change,"
But that steed drove him straight, drove him true.

Runner-Up

bgraham1:
This limerick is written by Palin,
And I'm just gonna ignore your liberal media "gotcha" rules and requirements
About rhyming, which is also
A socialist agenda
So too and also in my experience
As a mayor of the buckets of job creation
I can see Russia from my house

Winner

busstopboxer:
McCain's new best friend, Joe the Plumber
Is having his Indian Summer
He soon hopes to be
On a country CD
And probably driving a Hummer

Proud America

Bob Cesca writes about a moving episode from the recent biopic on John Adams and its' significance today:

...the Adamses, who were vocal opponents of slavery... walk below the familiar triangular peak of the north portico and through the front doors [of the White House under construction]-- the first presidential couple to occupy that historic building. As they step through the mud in what appears to be silent horror, they're taken aback by numerous slaves toiling all around. Painting and plastering the walls. Sweeping the floors. Moving furniture.

"The negroes will see to your trunks," a white foreman offers to "help" with the presidential luggage, and then barks at a slave, "Here! You boy!"

The scene culminates with Abigail Adams, played by Laura Linney, shouting with indignation, "Half-fed slaves building our nation's capital?!"

Not only was this scene a powerful cinematic illustration of the contradictions and ironies of America's founding liberties, but it also set the stage for an event you and I will be fortunate enough to witness just 76 days from right now.

Today, President Bush, of all people, described the forthcoming Inauguration Day and, perhaps inadvertently, presented the ultimate historical bookend to that scene from John Adams when he remarked, "It will be a stirring sight to watch President Obama, his wife, Michelle, and their beautiful girls step through the doors of the White House."

Indeed it will, sir. After eight years of awfulness, George W. Bush actually managed to say something that touched me in a way that didn't precipitate, you know, me breaking something. Damn you, Mr. President, you magnificent bastard...

The Whole Speech

For anyone who missed the whole thing live...

The Face of Change

Rice: Obama "Inspirational," His Election "An Extraordinary Step Forward"

In His Own Words

CNN has a nice slideshow recap of Obama's speech highlights

President-Elect Obama

Nate Calls it for President Obama

McCain's Camp says they need a miracle and fivethirtyeight calls it for Obama



There's a giddiness in the air. I'm going to take a while to savor it but as I told a conservative friend today:

You should know also that as hard as I have fought for whatever gains the Democrats may make today, I will fight equally hard tomorrow to hold them accountable. I will not abide reckless policies or revenge tactics. I hope that whomever is elected today is prepared for the hard work of governing that tomorrow will demand, and will work to make it so.

Here We Go.

First polls are now closed. The counting begins.

Here was the ground game in Boulder today:



A group of High School kids who looked too young to vote were passing their lunch hour getting out the vote today.

All over town Obama's offices are bustling, people are wearing every manner of Obama Flair and despite record high numbers of early votes, polling places are seeing steady streams...



Having already voted, I went over to the county building today trying to get to the DMV--I'll be on crutches for a few weeks and was trying to pick up a hang-tag for my car. No luck. The Motor Vehicle office was closed. The whole building had been converted to manage voting. So while there were lots of people in and out (including a guy in purple pants, pink converse and a giant sombrero I would have loved a picture of), there was no backlog. They even had a "drive up ballot box" on the curb for folks who had received early/mail-in ballots and not yet returned them. Everywhere, it was the picture of efficiency. Hopefully we'll do right by those High School kids and they'll remember today when they get to vote in 2012.

Landslide: 538's Final Prediction

Obama 349, McCain 189? That's What Nate Silver says:

Our model projects that Obama will win all states won by John Kerry in 2004, in addition to Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Florida and North Carolina, while narrowly losing Missouri and Indiana. These states total 353 electoral votes. Our official projection, which looks at these outcomes probabilistically -- for instance, assigns North Carolina's 15 electoral votes to Obama 59 percent of the time -- comes up with an incrementally more conservative projection of 348.6 electoral votes.

Wow.

As of Monday night, over 70% of Boulder County has voted. In 2004 the county had a turnout of 91%. this year the goal was at least 95%. Even if we hit 100% long lines are unlikely. The just under 57,000 remaining voters are spread over almost 250 precincts. That averages out to about 20 voters an hour.

Nevertheless the GOTV effort is out in force.

Youth Vote At Dartmouth

Those who are wondering if the youth will turn out ought to see what I saw this morning.
One well-known government professor here told me that she has never seen so many students vote in the first hour of voting as she saw this morning. And I've never seen so many students up and alert at this hour. They're normally stumbling out of bed to make it to their 10 a.m. courses. Today, the campus has been buzzing for hours this morning. It appears that many of them decided to go to the polls as groups of twos, threes, fours and more when the polls opened at 7 a.m. The number of students I saw by 8 a.m. walking around with "I voted" stickers on is astonishing.
At breakfast, I sat next to a table of four black students, all of whom had voted. The three men were wearing ties. I asked them why. The answer: It was their first election, and they wanted to "mark the occasion.

One Last Rally

90,000 people turned out to see Obama in Virgina yesterday. He reminded them where this all started, with small crowds, and long-shot odds, and a few courageous people who were willing to get their friends and their communities fired up and ready to go...

The Dish

I'll be posting interesting things as I see them today, but will inevitably be behind the best... Andrew Sullivan is one of my staples--a self-described gay conservative, he's been smart and incisive about the things that matter this election season. Check out his blog today and read his endorsement of Obama. This paragraph sums it up, but the whole thing is worth the read:

If I were to give one reason why I believe electing Barack Obama is essential tomorrow, it would be an end to this dark, lawless period in American constitutional government. The domestic cultural and political reasons for an Obama presidency remain as strong as they were when I wrote "Goodbye To All That" over a year ago. His ability to get us past the culture war has been proven in this campaign, in the generation now coming of age that will elect him if they turn out, in Obama's staggering ability not to take the bait. His fiscal policies are too liberal for me - I don't believe in raising taxes, I believe in cutting entitlements for the middle classes as the way to fiscal balance. I don't believe in "progressive taxation", I support a flat tax. I don't want to give unions any more power. I'm sure there will be moments when a Democratic Congress will make me wince. But I also understand that money has to come from somewhere, and it will not come in any meaningful measure from freezing pork or the other transparent gimmicks advertized in advance by McCain. McCain is not serious on spending. But he is deadly serious in not touching taxes. So, on the core question of debt, on bringing America back to fiscal reason, Obama is still better than McCain. If I have to take an ideological hit to head toward fiscal solvency, I'll put country before ideology.

A Bit of Nostalgia

There are some things I'll miss when the election is over--it sure has been good fodder for humor...

It's Time

Obama's Grandmother Dies on Eve of Election

Obama's grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, died early Monday morning. What a bittersweet day this must be for Obama. Yesterday, he remembered her this way:



She did get to vote before she died, and because she was alive when she cast her vote and her ballot was received, her vote will count.

Obama Wins Dixville Notch in Landslide

Polls opened at midnight in Dixville Notch, NH where the small community all shows up together to vote as soon as they are able. 100% of their registered voters vote, and they have consistently leaned Republican, not having voted for a democrat since selecting Hubert Humphrey over Richard Nixon in 1968. This year, the vote went for Obama, 15-6.

So, today's the day. If you've voted, thank you. If you haven't, go out now and beat the lines. If you don't have to work, or don't have to work until later, or can take the day off, go volunteer.

As Campbell Brown reminds us, it isn't about luck, it's about us. We can do this. Yes we can.

Cheney Endorses McCain, and Praises Palin...

Quote of the Day

Thanks to Magda for forwarding...

“I look at these people and can't quite believe that they exist. Are they professional actors? I wonder. Or are they simply laymen who want a lot of attention? To put them in perspective, I think of being on an airplane. The flight attendant comes down the aisle with her food cart and, eventually, parks it beside my seat. 'Can I interest you in the chicken?' she asks. 'Or would you prefer the platter of shit with bits of broken glass in it? To be undecided in this election is to pause for a moment and then ask how the chicken is cooked.'

- David Sedaris, on undecided voters

Reagan Ad Man Uses Pro-Reagan Ad Against McCain

Generation We

By 2016 non-boomers will represent the largest voting bloc in the country. We are ready for change...

Looking to the Future

In his own words...

"A Family Grew Rich on Cotton, and Slaves, and Grew a Great Military Dynasty..."

In Case You're Feeling Complacent

This is what "family values" look like...



This was shot today. In Denver. Don't just get angry. Get five people to vote...

Thanks, Leasa, for sharing.

Palin Pick: "The Most Devastatingly Poor Judgment in Modern Political History"

Discussing media efforts to be "fair and balanced" when the wheels are coming off the cart on one side of the wagon, Andew Sullivan doesn't mince words on this one:

The Vet Who Did Not Vet

Today's Humor...

My Worst Nightmare

MoveOn has put together a great, customized video to drive home how we'll feel if voting somehow slips our mind. I've voted already, so this won't be me... Don't let it be you either!

Palin: VP is Pres' "Team-Mate" and "In Charge of the Senate"

A month before being tapped for the position Palin wondered aloud on national TV what exactly the Vice President did every day. Later she laughed off the comment as a poor attempt at a joke.

In her debate against Joe Biden she gave a confused answer about the VP role.

Yesterday, in an interview with the Colorado NBC affiliate, she tried to answer the question for a 3rd grader who had sent the question in to the station...

Colin Powell Endorses Barack

When You Put Them in a Room Together

Obama and McCain both attended the Alfred E. Smith Memorial Dinner last night. A fancy-schmancy white-tie affair at the Waldorf Astoria. Here's what those crazy kids had to say about each other...

First, McCain roasts Obama



Then, its Obama's turn

Boy Bands for Obama

An appeal from the youth of America to White Moms who might still be on the fence...


Apparently, we are a YouTube target demographic...

McCain's Letterman Appearance

He finally made it...

Sister Site

The countdown to the election continues, and we can't give up the fight just yet--while the numbers are looking good, the worst thing we can do is begin taking a win for granted. Yet, beginning to look to the future is a good idea, too.

After all, we're not in this to see who wins the pageant, we're in this to change the direction of our country.

With both Obama and Senate Democrats showing commanding leads in many races, we need to be thinking about how we'll expect our representatives to engage the issues that matter after the election. The last thing I want is a far-left pendulum swing that further deepens the divide in America. Rather, one of the things that inspires me about the possibility of an Obama presidency is the possibility his candidacy presents for real dialogue about issues that matter.

I'll keep blogging here in the weeks ahead as we get ready for election day (have YOU voted yet?), but have also launched a sister site to keep the conversation going after the election, and to begin raising issues that we could stand to have a more robust conversation around.



Unlike this site, Middle Ground Matters won't be allied to any one candidate. You'll see I've added a feed to the list on the right, and hope you'll check the new site out, and keep sending me ideas for new topics to cover. While the conversations there may lean left, I'm committed to engaging many voices in hopes of getting them right.

I have really valued the conversation this site has provoked during this election, and hope you'll join me in keeping the conversation going on November 5th and after. That is when the real work of forging a more perfect union begins...

McCain: Protection for Mother's "Health" an Extreme Position

Tonight John McCain made clear that he would not support legislation that allows for abortion to protect the health of the mother. Yet he says that Obama's position (which would support restricting late-term abortion as long as protections were given for the life and health of the mother, and would advocate appropriate sex education, including helping young people understand that sexuality is "sacred") is extreme?!?

Mad McCain

Some highlights from tonight's debate. All the polls give it to Obama, by a lot. McCain, again, just looked ANGRY. This is NOT the guy I want taking the 3AM call.

The video below is short, and not of highest quality (hey it was up within minutes of the debate) but it emphasizes what a lot of people have been noting about McCain's body language. This piece by Kathlyn and Gay Hendricks is worth a read before watching the below.

Can You Vote Early?

I did! I dropped my ballot off today, and the board of elections was hopping. I had to wait in line to drop off my ballot and people were streaming steadily in and out.

The National Conference of State Legislatures has a handy page that lists states with no-excuse early or absentee voting.

All states allow early absentee voting if you will be away from your voting area on election day. You can view dates
and other info about absentee and early voting at electionpreparedness.com.

If you need to find out whether you are registered, where your polling place is, or how to contact your board of elections, go to canivote.org

If you live overseas, votefromabraod.org has all the info you need to request an absentee ballot and make sure your voice is heard.

My friend, Adam, created a Facebook group called, Vote Early, Just in Case to help spread the word. Here are a few of the fun (and scary) facts he collected:

In 2004, 16 million registered voters did not vote and 1/2 million of them would have been dead or in the hospital during the election.

In the next 20 days 94,685 voters will die, if they vote early their vote will leave a lasting legacy.
An additional 178,065 voters will be in the hospital and unable to get out to vote.
224,685 voters will go to the emergency room on election day and might not get to vote.

Roughly 6,575 people die per day
with 20 days until the election that is
131,507 people that will be lost.
of which 72% are registered so
94,685 voters might miss their chance to vote if they don't vote early.

As Adam says "Vote early since lines may be long, something might come up, or you might just kick the bucket before the election."

Yes We Carve

Looking to make your mark on Halloween?

Check out photo galleries, download stencils, and carve away at yeswecarve.com

Obama Supporters Tap Youth to Reach Out

Some creative third-party advertising targeting young Obama supporters to reach out to their elders:

"Talk to Your Parents About John McCain"



Sarah Silverman's "The Great Schlep"

The Great Schlep from The Great Schlep on Vimeo.

The Obama Campaign itself is also getting creative. The below is a screen shot from a popular video game:

The Faith of Sarah Palin

An interesting peek into the religious community that has propelled Palin's political ascendency:

Former Rgan Advisor Predicts Obama Landslide

Barring a dramatic change in the political landscape over the next three weeks, Democrats appear headed toward a decisive victory on Election Day that would give them broad power over the federal government.

The victory would send Barack Obama to the White House and give him larger Democratic majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate — and perhaps a filibuster-proof margin there.

That could mark a historic realignment of the country's politics on a scale with 1932 or 1980, when the out party was given power it held for a generation, and used it to transform government's role in American society.

There's More...

Women Speak out For Obama

Here is a great video with women from all walks of life, including Author Alice Walker, talking about why they support Barack.


Click image to view video

McCain Camp Defends "Supporters"

MSNBC reports

Earlier today, Obama remarked on recent outbursts of "Traitor!" "Terrorist!" and "Kill him!" at McCain campaign events. "It's easy to rile up a crowd," Obama said. "Nothing's easier than riling up a crowd by stoking anger and division. But that's not what we need right now in the United States."

In response, McCain senior adviser Nicolle Wallace released this statement, NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports. "Barack Obama's assault on our supporters is insulting and unsurprising. These are the same people obama called 'bitter' and attacked for 'clinging to guns' and faith. He fails to understand that people are angry at corrupt practices in Washington and Wall Street and he fails to understand that America's working families are not 'clinging' to anything other than the sincere hope that Washington will be reformed from top to bottom."

"Attacking our supporters is a new low for the campaign that's run more millions of dollars of negative ads than any other in history."

*** UPDATE *** McCain campaign spokesman Brian Rogers adds in another statement: “Barack Obama’s attacks on Americans who support John McCain reveal far more about him than they do about John McCain. It is clear that Barack Obama just doesn’t understand regular people and the issues they care about. He dismisses hardworking middle class Americans as clinging to guns and religion, while at the same time attacking average Americans at McCain rallies who are angry at Washington, Wall Street and the status quo."

That the McCain camp defends cries of treason and for violence as shows of support goes far beyond the disappointing lack of judgment we've seen in the last month--it verges on the overwhelmingly irresponsible. An African American single mom, so appalled at what she's seen writes

If it matters, I am an African American single mother-This election means more to me than I can find the words to describe. I love this country despite all of our history.

And yesterday, I cried my last tears, after I watch the venomous, vile, and vitriolic display at the McCain-Palin rally unfold over the last few days. I was raised in a Southern Baptist church, and I was taught as a young child when things look bleak and you are backed up against a wall you just let go and let God. We as African Americans have been subjected to the system and have the philosophy ingrained that we have to accept the things that we can not change.

Well here and now damn it--I have cried my last tears yesterday. I am going to fight!

I love the principles that our country was founded on--and I hate what some people are resorting to. And we will fulfill the promise of a More Perfect Union.

May we all fulfill that promise.

A Tale of Two Rallies

How Obama motivates his crowd in difficult times:



McCain's approach:



The folks at FiveThirtyEight.com attended an Obama rally and a Palin rally in Ohio today and offer an interesting account of the contrasts.

Who is Barack Obama?

I've gotten a number of emails in the last few days from people who are hearing from undecided members of their family that Barack Obama still "scares them." The email campaigns and un-truths being spouted at rallies is still unsettling for those who have not yet looked closely at who Barack is. This behind-the-scenes video from the DNC gives you a window into the heart of a man and his family.



I also highly encourage anyone who still has unanswered questions about Barack and his background to read his first book: Dreams from My Father. It was written while he was editor of the Harvard Law Review, long before he ran for any public office and is a poignant and unusually frank narrative from a (now) public official.

You can buy the book at Amazon.com, download it from audible.com (or you can look it up in iTunes). I listened to it on audio book and found it a special treat as Barack narrates it himself--his life in his own words.

For those who like to read the cliffs notes first, there is a summary on Wikipedia.

Michelle on the Daily Show

The Second Debate In a Minute

The Cliffs Notes Version...

Get the latest news satire and funny videos at 236.com.

The Writing on the Wall

Two days ago, NY Times conservative columnist David Brooks called Sarah Palin "a fatal cancer to the Republican party." Her anti-intellectualism, he said is a death knell in times that call for big ideas. He meanwhile praised Obama's running mate, saying:

"[Biden] can't not say what he thinks," Brooks remarked. "There's no internal monitor, and for Barack Obama, that's tremendously important to have a vice president who will be that way. Our current president doesn't have anybody like that."

Brooks predicted Obama would win by 9 points in the upcoming election.

Today, the Washington Post's George Will also threw in the towel on McCain's flailing campaign saying

Obama is competitive in so many states that President Bush carried in 2004 -- including Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico -- it is not eccentric to think he could win at least 350 of the 538 electoral votes.

What You Didn't See After the Debate

As soon as the major networks broke away from the debate floor for their post-game-punditry, the McCains left the building. The Obamas stayed to meet, shake hands, pose for pictures, and joke around with all 80 voters in the room. Thanks C-Span...

A Class Act

Michelle Obama just impresses...



Then there's this act of public service

Time: Why Women Hate Sarah Palin

This bit is a little tongue-in-cheek and a little check-yourself-out-in-the-mirror...

Ah, women, the consistently, tragically underestimated constituency. What the Democrats learned during the primaries and the Republicans might now be finding out the hard way, I learned at my very academic, well-regarded all-girls high school: that is never to discount the ability of women to open a robust, committed, well-thought-out vat of hatred for another girl.

Ouch.

The Real McCain

Thanks to Amanda for passing along this great article from Rolling Stone. It is one of the most in-depth looks at John McCain's life story, from Military Academy to the present, I have seen, and while many pieces of the story will sound familiar, as the subtitle suggests, "a closer look at the life and career of John McCain reveals a disturbing record of recklessness and dishonesty." I've included a few gems below, but the full story is worth the read.
The first 6 pages recount the personal favors and nepotistic deals that characterized McCain's early military career and the womanizing and misogyny that went along with it, once the piece turns to his political career, however, there is some serious food for thought. The author doesn't pretend to be unbiased, so take it with a grain of salt, but notice how differently the same events play with other bits of context...

"A Reformer...?"
In congress, Rep. John McCain quickly positioned himself as a GOP hard-liner. He voted against honoring Martin Luther King Jr. with a national holiday in 1983 — a stance he held through 1989. He backed Reagan on tax cuts for the wealthy, abortion and support for the Nicaraguan contras. He sought to slash federal spending on social programs, and he voted twice against campaign-finance reform. He cites as his "biggest" legislative victory of that era a 1989 bill that abolished catastrophic health insurance for seniors, a move he still cheers as the first-ever repeal of a federal entitlement program...In this context, McCain's recent record — opposing the new GI Bill, voting to repeal the federal minimum wage, seeking to deprive 3.8 million kids of government health care — looks entirely consistent. "When jackasses like Rush Limbaugh say he's not conservative, that's just total nonsense," says former Sen. Gary Hart, who still counts McCain as a friend.

"Reaching Across the Aisle"
In the aftermath of the Keating Five, McCain realized that his career was in a "hell of a mess." He had made George H.W. Bush's shortlist for vice president in 1988, but the Keating scandal made him a political untouchable. McCain needed a high horse — so his long-standing opposition to campaign-finance reform went out the window. Working with Russ Feingold, a Democrat from Wisconsin, McCain authored a measure to ban unlimited "soft money" donations from politics.

"Straight Talk Sucker Punch"
The Keating affair also taught McCain a vital lesson about handling the media. When the scandal first broke, he went ballistic on reporters who questioned his wife's financial ties to Keating — calling them "liars" and "idiots." Predictably, the press coverage was merciless. So McCain dialed back the anger and turned up the charm. "I talked to the press constantly, ad infinitum, until their appetite for information from me was completely satisfied," he later wrote. "It is a public relations strategy that I have followed to this day." Mr. Straight Talk was born.

"Steady Hand at the Tiller?!?"
Over the years, John McCain has demonstrated a streak of anger so nasty that even his former flacks make no effort to spin it away. "If I tried to convince you he does not have a temper, you should hang up on me and ridicule me in print," says Dan Schnur, who served as McCain's press man during the 2000 campaign. Even McCain admits to an "immature and unprofessional reaction to slights" that is "little changed from the reactions to such provocations I had as a schoolboy."

McCain is sensitive about his physical appearance, especially his height. The candidate is only five-feet-nine, making him the shortest party nominee since Michael Dukakis. On the night he was elected senator in 1986, McCain exploded after discovering that the stage setup for his victory speech was too low; television viewers saw his head bobbing at the bottom of the screen, his chin frequently cropped from view. Enraged, McCain tracked down the young Republican who had set up the podium, prodding the volunteer in the chest while screaming that he was an "incompetent little shit." Jon Hinz, the director of the Arizona GOP, separated the senator from the young man, promising to get him a milk crate to stand on for his next public appearance...

At least three of McCain's GOP colleagues have gone on record to say that they consider him temperamentally unsuited to be commander in chief. Smith, the former senator from New Hampshire, has said that McCain's "temper would place this country at risk in international affairs, and the world perhaps in danger. In my mind, it should disqualify him." Sen. Domenici of New Mexico has said he doesn't "want this guy anywhere near a trigger." And Sen. Thad Cochran of Mississippi weighed in that "the thought of his being president sends a cold chill down my spine. He is erratic. He is hotheaded."

"Warmonger"
The myth of John McCain hinges on two transformations — from pampered flyboy to selfless patriot, and from Keating crony to incorruptible reformer — that simply never happened. But there is one serious conversion that has taken root in McCain: his transformation from a cautious realist on foreign policy into a reckless cheerleader of neoconservatism.

"He's going to be Bush on steroids," says Johns, the retired brigadier general who has known McCain since their days at the National War College. "His hawkish views now are very dangerous. He puts military at the top of foreign policy rather than diplomacy, just like George Bush does. He and other neoconservatives are dedicated to converting the world to democracy and free markets, and they want to do it through the barrel of a gun."

...Indeed, McCain's neocon makeover is so extreme that Republican generals like Colin Powell and Brent Scowcroft have refused to endorse their party's nominee. "The fact of the matter is his judgment about what to do in Iraq was wrong," says Richard Clarke, who served as Bush's counterterrorism czar until 2003. "He hung out with people like Ahmad Chalabi. He said Iraq was going to be easy, and he said we were going to war because of terrorism. We should have been fighting in Afghanistan with more troops to go after Al Qaeda. Instead we're at risk because of the mistaken judgment of people like John McCain."

This gives you a flavor, but there's more...

Mind the Gap

Obama's lead is opening up everywhere--in national polls that virtually all have him ahead by large margins and in every key battleground state (where he needs two or three, he leads in six or seven). More people trust him on the economy, and despite the slimy last-ditch efforts of the Palinistas, the country is becoming more and more comfortable with the idea of Obama as President.

Tonight's debate was pretty dull. I agree with most of the pundits that this format was rather wretched. The questions were barely so-so at a time when there are lots of big questions to ask--and most of the questions weren't very new (and that question at the end wasn't Zen, it was just irrelevant--Ifill's Achilles' heel question was more pertinent, and that is saying something). Boring as it was, though, it did McCain no favors--he looked weak, and old, and crotchety. He said he'd implement a complete moratorium on new government spending in one breath, an then introduced the idea that somehow the Federal Government could come in, buy up "bad mortgages" for people who are upside down in their loans and resell them to homeowners at the price of their devalued homes (essentially having the rest of us eat the capital loss, I guess) HUH?!?! But Obama's health care plan is evidence of the "big hand" of government?

The election is four weeks from today, and a lot can still happen, of course, but as more and more people see Obama as the one who is steady and calm in crisis, the less opportunity McCain will have to close the gap. I'm sure McCain will try to pull a few more things out of his sleeve in the weeks ahead, but the bluster is starting to fall on deaf ears. For someone who calls so much attention to his record, he's done an awful lot to undermine it and reversed his position a few too many times to be believed...

Stop the Hatemongering

Palin's pit bull attacks on Obama's acquaintance with Bill Ayers is escalating into something much more ugly.

Palin has continued to blame "main stream media" for her poor showing in interviews and is stirring up the crowds:

Palin's routine attacks on the media have begun to spill into ugliness. In Clearwater, arriving reporters were greeted with shouts and taunts by the crowd of about 3,000. Palin then went on to blame Katie Couric's questions for her "less-than-successful interview with kinda mainstream media." At that, Palin supporters turned on reporters in the press area, waving thunder sticks and shouting abuse. Others hurled obscenities at a camera crew. One Palin supporter shouted a racial epithet at an African American sound man for a network and told him, "Sit down, boy."

It doesn't stop at condescending, though, as Palin has stirred up anger at Obama's loose association to Ayers, the scales are tipping toward violent reaction:

Palin, speaking to a sea of "Palin Power" and "Sarahcuda" T-shirts, tried to link Obama to the 1960s Weather Underground. "One of his earliest supporters is a man named Bill Ayers," she said. ("Boooo!" said the crowd.) "And, according to the New York Times, he was a domestic terrorist and part of a group that, quote, 'launched a campaign of bombings that would target the Pentagon and our U.S. Capitol,' " she continued. ("Boooo!" the crowd repeated.)

"Kill him!" proposed one man in the audience.

I worry that Palin doesn't even appreciate the incendiary nature of her comments. Hailing from a state where the largest African American population rests at 11% (in Fairbanks) and from a town that makes the top ten list of lowest percentages of African Americans (Wasilla has a whopping 1% of Blacks in its population) she may just not get it, but her advisors should (and if she doesn't it bodes badly for her ability to lead in the rest of the country)--this is a dangerous tack to take, and I hope tonight's debate can steer the conversation back to germane topics.

What we are FOR: Family Values...

After Thursday's debate I wrote that one of my biggest take-aways was that we had turned a corner. I believe more and more that comparisons between McCain and Bush, while more stark and true day by day, are less necessary. The McCain camp has chosen a path of slander and smear, but we have a whole lot on our side. Finally, we have a candidate that has a LOT going for him beyond being "not Bush." I'll highlight some key policy excitements in the days ahead in my "What we are FOR" posts, but as a tribute to the Obamas' anniversary on Friday (and in celebration of mine tomorrow), here's a moving video of what our first family might look like. Last week, relationship experts Kathlyn and Gay Hendricks wrote:

One of the greatest benefits of an Obama presidency is hidden in plain sight: the relationship between Michelle and Barack. They provide a great role model of a healthy relationship, at a time when such models are sorely needed.

I think it is high time we stop preaching family values, and start modeling them...

Charge that Obama "Pals Around" with Ayers an Outright Lie

Sarah Palin has launched the McCain camp's latest offensive (and yes, it IS offensive) by dredging up a tired attack that Barack Obama is linked to one of the founders of the 1960s group Weather Underground, calling him unpatriotic for "paling around with" Bill Ayers. The Associated Press has denounced the attack as "racially tinged" and grossly misleading

Her reference was exaggerated at best if not outright false. No evidence shows they were "pals" or even close when they worked on community boards years ago and Ayers hosted a political event for Obama early in his career.

Obama, who was a child when the Weathermen were planting bombs, has denounced Ayers' radical views and actions.

With the McCain camp announcing an all-out, no holds barred, street brawl to the finish, we'll have our work cut out for us in the weeks ahead to keep the conversation on the issues that matter and avoid the gimmick pitfalls. The end is in sight though, and the electoral map looks better by the day:



Obama=340 Electoral votes McCain=198 Electoral votes

Keep up the good work... Colorado is tightening some so we can't relax just yet.

Letterman's Take on the Veep Debate

Veep Debate Retrospective: Biden's Great Night

I know several of you have hit the site today looking for my take on the debate, and pundits far and wide have had their take on the night's events out since minutes after it ended. I've started writing a response several times only to abandon it as feeling flat, and now I know why.

The inclination was to critique Palin, and there is simply nothing left to say. The range has been exhausted. We didn't see anything new from her last night. I tend to share Geraldine Ferraro's assessment that I'm glad she didn't fall flat on her face. It is bad enough that McCain chose a trophy Veep to stand with him along side his trophy wife; if she had completely melted down it would have done as much to set women back as Hillary did to bring us forward. Palin's journalism teachers and pageant coaches should have been proud of her last night, but I hope the lesson of history our daughters take away is that cute and coy is not enough.

Last night, while everyone's attention was on Palin, Biden methodically stole the show. He was warm, smart, so obviously well versed in issues that matter that while Palin shuffled her deck of talking points he deftly took the upper hand, time and again, without ever coming off in the least bit condescending. Last night Biden helped give us a glimpse of what we get to be FOR in November. This is no longer a battle against the failed policies of GWB; "stop looking back" might have been the only sensible thing Palin said.

The economic catastrophe we've witnessed these last two weeks put the exclamation point on Bush's irrelevance and Palin's perfunctory performance, I think, sealed the deal for us. I worried, rightly it turned out in 2004 that the only Democratic agenda was an anti-Bush platform. It wasn't enough for Kerry, and we've all paid dearly. Last night, Biden reminded me why we should not only be hopeful, but excited this year.

(More later...)

An Exceptional Endorsement

The New Yorker endorsed Barack Obama today in one of the most considered and poignant Presidential endorsements I have ever read. They conclude by saying

We cannot expect one man to heal every wound, to solve every major crisis of policy. So much of the Presidency, as they say, is a matter of waking up in the morning and trying to drink from a fire hydrant. In the quiet of the Oval Office, the noise of immediate demands can be deafening. And yet Obama has precisely the temperament to shut out the noise when necessary and concentrate on the essential. The election of Obama—a man of mixed ethnicity, at once comfortable in the world and utterly representative of twenty-first-century America—would, at a stroke, reverse our country’s image abroad and refresh its spirit at home. His ascendance to the Presidency would be a symbolic culmination of the civil- and voting-rights acts of the nineteen-sixties and the century-long struggles for equality that preceded them. It could not help but say something encouraging, even exhilarating, about the country, about its dedication to tolerance and inclusiveness, about its fidelity, after all, to the values it proclaims in its textbooks. At a moment of economic calamity, international perplexity, political failure, and battered morale, America needs both uplift and realism, both change and steadiness. It needs a leader temperamentally, intellectually, and emotionally attuned to the complexities of our troubled globe. That leader’s name is Barack Obama.

The work they do to get there is worth the read, though.

Human Rights Campaign Comes Out Against Sarah Palin

You might have seen Sarah Palin's comment to Katie Couric that one of her best friends is gay and that she doesn't judge her for that "choice." Palin's record has a lot of people in the Gay, Lesbian, Bisexual, and Transgender community very worried though, and the Human Rights Campaign sent a group to Alaska to talk to GLBT folks about what it has been like to live under Palin as a Mayor and governor.

Here's what they have to say

Michelle Obama Gets out the Vote

Are you registered to vote yet? Is everyone in your family? Is everyone you know? Voter registration deadlines are looming and if you're not registered, you can't vote. In Colorado the deadline is October 6, and Michelle Obama was in town today working to get out the vote at the University of Colorado.

The crowd of 8,500 people was feisty and fired up after being warmed up by student leaders, the First Lady of Colorado, Congressman Mark Udall's wife, and former Denver Bronco Rod Smith. Smith told the crowd that despite this being the 5th Presidential election in which he is eligible to vote, he never voted until the 2004 election and now has deep regrets about it. "People died so that I could have the right to vote," he said. He assured the crowd that his 18-year old daughter would be voting in this election and urged all of them to vote too. He also recounted how he had been excited to go to the polls in 2004 only to spend his whole time in line talking about football and signing autographs. This year, he said, he was voting early.

When Michelle Obama finally took the stage, the energy in the crowd was electric. The feeling of young people (and not so young people) excited at the prospect of being involved in the political process was palpable. The recurrent refrain in Michelle's speech was "wouldn't it be nice to have a President who understands..."

She emphasized that Barack Obama knows what it is like to grow up with a young single mother who sometimes had to rely on food stamps, understands both the privilege of a higher education and the hard work it takes to get and pay for one. The Obamas have only recently paid off their student loans, she said, and that was only because "Barack has written two best-selling books."

Time and again, Michelle connected her husband's life story to the crowd:

Barack Obama gets it because he's been there... Barack has seen what it is like to struggle.

She also connected herself:

It is not just politics for me, it is personal.

As she talked about building a green economy so that our children can get good jobs and we can leave a cleaner planet for them she reminded the crowd that energy and enthusiasm are great, but that votes are what matter.

We don't want to wake up with regrets the day after election day saying "You know I really liked that Barack Obama."

I heard a lot of young people around me say that her speech was excellent when she finished, many pressed forward to have a chance to shake her hand as she worked a rope line at the end. I hope all of them also registered to vote. Today's paper suggests the voter registration effort is working with an average of 2,000 new voters registering in Boulder every day.

If you're not registered yet, no matter where you live, you can do it here now.


Here are some fun shots from today's rally. My favorite? The T-shirt reading "lipstick is not a vice presidential qualification"

Time to Fix This Mess

On Monday I wrote my take on the fiscal mess we're in. Today, Thomas Friedman echoes my growing concern:

Well, you say, “I don’t own any stocks — let those greedy monsters on Wall Street suffer.” You may not own any stocks, but your pension fund owned some Lehman Brothers commercial paper and your regional bank held subprime mortgage bonds, which is why you were able refinance your house two years ago. And your local airport was insured by A.I.G., and your local municipality sold municipal bonds on Wall Street to finance your street’s new sewer system, and your local car company depended on the credit markets to finance your auto loan — and now that the credit market has dried up, Wachovia bank went bust and your neighbor lost her secretarial job there.

We’re all connected. As others have pointed out, you can’t save Main Street and punish Wall Street anymore than you can be in a rowboat with someone you hate and think that the leak in the bottom of the boat at his end is not going to sink you, too. The world really is flat. We’re all connected. “Decoupling” is pure fantasy.

I totally understand the resentment against Wall Street titans bringing home $60 million bonuses. But when the credit system is imperiled, as it is now, you have to focus on saving the system, even if it means bailing out people who don’t deserve it. Otherwise, you’re saying: I’m going to hold my breath until that Wall Street fat cat turns blue. But he’s not going to turn blue; you are, or we all are. We have to get this right.

It is good and right to be angry at this predicament, but yelling at Congress to vote down the bill is like yelling at the fire department to let your neighbor's house burn. Odds are very good that you'll find your own house in flames.

The Senate votes today. Call your senator's office and tell them you expect reasonable oversight of the Treasury and equity interest for your investment but that you also expect them to vote YES. If they are getting calls from people who don't like it because they don't understand the economics, their job is to do a better job explaining why it is necessary.

A Rosh Hashanah Reflection

Responding to Critics

I got a lengthy e-mail today from someone who received my blog announcement from a friend of a friend. A self-described "conservative" he didn't have many nice things to say about my blog, or my positions, or Senator Obama. The point of this space is to have a conversation though, and the conversations with people who disagree with us matter more than the conversations with people who already agree, so I've posted his comments, and my replies below. Maybe some of you share some of his misgivings, or are trying to figure out how to have conversations with people who do. Please read and join in the conversation...

I've kept the e-mailer anonymous, but told him where he can find this post in case he wants to continue the conversation. My replies are indented, his original comments are not.
-----------------------

Thanks for taking the time to read and reply to my comments. Despite the unnecessarily condescending tone you strike I'll make a pass at answering some of your concerns. The purpose of the blog, after all is to generate discussion.

Please do us both a favor and do not forward any more blogs by Jennifer Simpson or someone of a similar ilk..

I'm not certain what "ilk" you lump me in with after reading one piece of my writing. I suppose from later comments that I've been grouped under some "liberal" umbrella. Fair enough, though it concerns me that you request outright not to be included in conversations that might challenge your own perspective. The purpose of a conversation, after all, is to explore an idea you don't already hold.

I am sure Ms. Simpson is a fine person but the way she goes on about Obama reminds me of a 14 year old high school freshman with a crush on the school's star quarterback. Please remind her that this is not American Idol but rather the election of the President of the United States. A pretty face, nice smile and the ability to read "inspiring" words from a teleprompter are not the criteria for the Presidency.

Personal insults aside, I'm not sure what to make of this claim. Senator Obama is a constitutional law scholar, was editor of the Harvard Law review, was professor of Constitutional Law for 12 years, spent 8 years in the Illinois state house and 4 years in the U.S. Senate. He has a long public and published record of advocacy for and positions on issues of major consequence for our world today. He's been thinking about and working on the issues that matter for decades. "A pretty face, nice smile and the ability to read "inspiring" words from a teleprompter" seems to describe your candidate for the Vice Presidency much better than Senator Obama.

On the other hand, I can appreciate that as a liberal, Ms. Simpson and others will vote for Obama because he is the Democratic nominee and liberals vote for Democrats. Quite frankly, John McCain was not my first choice as the Republican nominee and I disagree with him on several issues but, as a conservative, I will vote for him just as I understand that a liberal will vote for Obama. However, at least I know that McCain, although not my first choice, is qualified and has accomplishments that make him deserving of the Presidency. Does anyone voting for Obama, in his/her heart of hearts, truly believe that Obama is qualified or has accomplished anything which makes him deserving of being President of the USA?

Per the above, I absolutely believe Senator Obama to have qualifications to make good and considered decisions about issues that matter to the country. While I have had a degree of respect for McCain over his years in the senate he has lost that respect over the course of this campaign as he has

**refused to release his medical records (as a 72 year old with a history of cancer this is unconscionable),

**recklessly chosen a running mate who, while perhaps able to claim, technically, that she has "executive" experience has no public record and has not been able to demonstrate in any of the interviews she has been permitted to give that she has ever seriously considered or studied any of the major domestic or international issues facing our country, with perhaps the exception of her narrow view of energy policy.

**behaved impulsively and contemptuously toward the American public by racing from one gimmick to another while offering no substantive policy proposals for solving the economic crisis.

Obama has had an economic policy on record for months that would address several of the factors that have led to the current debacle and make real investments in the economy that will allow it to grow in the future.

As for Ms. Simpson's beliefs as raised in the bullet points, I find most of them to be, not merely from the dark side, but in some cases, almost incomprehensible. Consider her concern for how prisoners are treated. I assume she is referring to the the terrorists who are at Guantanamo Bay; you know, those nice Muslim fellows who indiscriminately bomb and murder innocent people. On the other hand, I guess she could be referring to our home grown thugs who commit murder and mayhem on our streets. In either case, contrast her concern for these individuals with her strong advocacy in her first bullet point for the murder of innocent unborn children, aka, "a woman's right to chose"? It is truly incomprehensible that the same person who, I assume very self-righteously, is unhappy about how prisoners are treated, strongly endorses the killing of unborn children.

This paragraph is so sadly entrenched in ideological rhetoric I'm not quite sure where to begin. I'll leave the first, incomprehensible, sentence aside. The concern for treatment of prisoners of war, as defined in and upheld by the Geneva conventions, is primarily for the State to hold prisoners only with just cause. If you have a case, make it. I'm not advocating the release of madmen or terrorists (though the fact that you equate "terrorists" with "nice Muslim fellows who indiscriminately bomb and murder..." is a stereotype of the worst and most dangerous kind), just that the American public be disturbed by its government sweeping people off the streets and throwing them in cells for years on end without formally charging them with anything. That does not make us more safe and it does not advance the cause of democracy around the world.

Next, that you equate a "woman's right to choose" with ""strong advocacy for the murder of innocent unborn children" would be laughable if it were not so sadly, heartbreakingly, wrong. Proponents of choice do not believe that abortion should be common--the position is very clearly that it be safe, accessible, and RARE. Protections for the health and life of the mother are paramount.

In other, more elective cases, there is a human recognition that conception of a child can, and often does occur in cases of rape, incest, and violence. Many women choose, nevertheless, to bring these children into the world, but I do not believe a rapist should be able to choose the mother of his children against her will. Finally, history demonstrates that making abortion illegal does not make it go away--there will always be cases of desperation when a woman is terrified she will not be able to care for a baby. When abortion is a safe and accessible option, she is more likely to have a conversation with her health care provider and understand her full range of options. If doctors are prohibited from discussing termination with those women, more of them will take drastic measures and the life of both mother and fetus will be at risk.

If we actually care about reducing the number of abortions in this country, the best way to do it is to create a climate of open discussion where teens are able to talk about the challenges and changes they face in puberty, learn the self-worth and self-respect that enables them to say no to sex until they are more mature, and understand how to use and access effective birth control when they are sexually active.

It still amazes me that the party who wants no government control over gun ownership because "guns don't kill people, people kill people" can advocate government intervention in such a deeply personal medical decision and advocate against the kinds of sex education that will empower our children to make better choices about their sexuality and never have to choose abortion.

I recently saw a bumper sticker that said "If you don't like abortion, don't have one". I found myself wondering if, 150 years ago, that same person would have had on the back of their buggy a sticker that said "If you don't like slavery, don't own a slave". I think we all agree that slavery was an evil. It was justified under the guise of "states' rights". Well, abortion is an evil justified under the guise of "a woman's right to chose". An evil is an evil, and the murder of an innocent unborn baby is evil. And please do not give me the "it's only a fetus" story. It has a beating heart. It feels pain. It is an unborn human, as we all were at one time. Thankfully our mothers decided not to kill us in the womb.

I agree that the bumper sticker you reference is crass. It does emphasize that MANY people who support the right to choose would not choose to have an abortion themselves and would help those they love make other choices, but as most bumper stickers do, it oversimplifies a complex issue. Per the above, my position does not rest on an "it's only a fetus" argument, though it also certainly does not rest on a good vs. evil argument that grossly oversimplifies ethical nuances.

Why should I have the right, under the second amendment, to use a gun to shoot a person (with a beating heart, who feels pain) who breaks into my home to steal my television (or to rape my child), but not have the right, if that rape is completed to deny life to that invader's offspring?

Different topic. Gas at $4 a gallon, we send $700 Billion a year out of our country for oil and she is against drilling here in the USA!!!!!! I could go on and on with the problems I have with just about everything Ms. Simpson believes in.

Where to start?! Like it or not, even at $4 a gallon gas is less expensive in the US than almost every other industrialized nation of the world because it is so heavily subsidized by the federal government. I agree that the cost of fuel for transportation is a burden on many Americans and that many years of poor infrastructure planning makes alternative transportation difficult to choose.

I don't believe I advocated anywhere that we shut down existing wells and cease all US Oil production. In fact, I'm certain that I did not. My concern with emphasis on more off-shore drilling is that it grossly distracts from the real problem, which is not only dependence on foreign oil, but dependence on oil period. As long as we are heavy consumers of oil and dependent on it for our energy needs, we will always be consumers of foreign oil--the US can never produce enough to satisfy demand.

When the Congress recently voted to open up the coast to more off-shore drilling, Representative Nick J. Rahall II, the West Virginia Democrat who leads the Natural Resources Committee, said “We are opening up to 400 million acres off the Atlantic and Pacific coasts to drilling and expanding the availability of oil by at least 2 billion barrels, and we have done so in a balanced, reasonable and responsible manner.”

Fine, this gets us 2 billion more barrels, most of which won't come on line for many years to come. This represents about a 3 week supply of oil. According to both Chevron and The Oxford Princeton Programme it took us 125 years to use the first trillion barrels of oil, and will take us about 30 years to use the next trillion.

Here's some quick math:

1,000,000,000,000 barrels

___________________ = approx. 91,000,000 barrels/day



30 X 365 days

At a rate of 91 Million barrels, give or take, a day, we'll burn through 2 billion barrels in just about 21 days. And, we wont see any of that production come on line for nearly a decade.

Whether drilling here and drilling now makes sense if we've got it is completely beside the point. Whatever we get from those sites will take years to come on line and won't create anywhere near the impact on the demand market to significantly impact prices at the pump or elsewhere.

The only way to address either your concern for prices at the pump or the $700 billion going to foreign oil producers is to become one of the world's leaders in alternative sources of energy. We have the scientific and engineering capability to be truly great there, and it is something that could actually form the basis for a strong economy. All we lack is political will.

Finally, with respect to the financial mess which you mentioned, I have attached an excellent video which explains how we got into this situation. It is a rather long video so, in case you decide not to watch it, permit me to quickly summarize it. Starting with the Clinton Administration, the government put pressure on banks to lower their requirements for obtaining mortgages. When the banks resisted, the liberals in Congress, particularly Barney Frank and several others, then said that the banks were discriminating racially and threatened action. The banks then started giving loans to people who, in reality, could not afford them. In 2003, John McCain co-sponsored a bill to bring more oversight to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It was rejected by the Democrats. Now we have this crisis. I know this is happening on Bush's watch but this is one problem he is not responsible for creating. Liberal Democrats are responsible.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5tZc8oH--o

Though you've tried to paint me in clunky, broad brush strokes, I won't hold Democrats wholly blameless. A lot of people have made bad decisions that helped bring us to this point. The Community Reinvestment Act that Clinton championed was an imperfect approach to fixing the ills that were already starting to be seen in housing markets as the result of more than a decade of deregulation and speculation. This report looks specifically at the impact of economic policies of the Bush administration on this crisis:

http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/08/pdf/bushonomics.pdf

I frankly don't find "free markets are a fantasy" any more helpful an argument than "liberal democrats did it" though. Markets work best though when oversights are in place to protect against gaming the system. You are correct that McCain had his name on a bill that would have called for more oversight of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (though he was hardly a champion of it, and his campaign manager was receiving $15,000 a month from the housing giants to ensure access to a McCain White House).

You can find a fact-check story here.

Finally, I am not voting for Obama because I am a liberal. Both candidates are surely human and have both strengths and weaknesses. I am voting for Obama not because he's a pretty face and a good speaker, but because his policies demonstrate clear thinking and consideration of the issues I care about and because having a President who values a range of perspectives and doesn't jump to rash judgments will be a refreshing change.

I hope you will not vote for McCain simply because you are a "conservative" but will ask yourself whether a 72-year old man who has shown rash judgment and a running mate who shows no depth of knowledge on any important policy issue is really the best choice for the country.

A Global Mess

I've heard a lot of people in the last few days railing against the very prospect of a $700 Billion economic recovery plan. And why not? This administration has proven again and again that it will lie, cheat, and steal and never accept responsibility. It has cried "Wolf!" too many times to count, and been wrong.

Some think we should just trust the free market to correct itself--that sound companies will survive and bad ones will be "cleansed." The theory goes that companies that have planned wisely can ride out a few months of lesser access to credit, and that those that have been overextended should, rightly, fail.

Others would prefer we invest the $700 Billion in a great Public Works project to improve our nation's infrastructure and create the basis for a new economic boom (in say, renewable energy technology). Of course, having something to show for the investment would be better than the pile of bad debt we look to be holding if the "bailout" passes.

Unfortunately, I'm increasingly convinced that the ship has sailed on those options. They both simply overlook too many key issues in a global economy that I don't fully understand. The below is clearly over-simple, but I don't think wholly wrong. If any of you have tried to understand what's happening and glazed over sometime shortly after hearing or reading that "as LIBOR rates began to climb, credit markets began to freeze," I hope the below provides a capsule view of what is happening and will happen without intervention.

First, "credit markets" being frozen, isn't just about long-term lending for future capital projects, innovation, or even consumer purchases. In fact, as I understand it, it is only very loosely about those things. The credit markets are the lifeblood of global corporations. Every day, billions and billions of dollars are lent and repaid on a very short-term cycle (like 24-hours or a week). The (LIBOR) rates are generally fairly reasonable, but on large sums of money produce a nice profit for the lenders, and the comparably cheap price of the money makes it a good way to ensure cash flow for companies that have large accounts receivable-they pay today's bills, from leases, payroll, supplies etc... with the receipts they expect tomorrow (generally for goods and services already delivered and so a reasonably good bet). When the cost to borrow this money rises sharply, it becomes harder to borrow against tomorrow, and as the market contracts, it also becomes less likely that those who owe YOU money will repay it in full.

Given the interconnectedness of markets today, the housing bubble issue that we've heard is at the root of all this mess is related, but it is hard to pin down what is the chicken and what is the egg. Large investment banks were clearly heavily invested in "bundled" mortgages and as those have defaulted they've been less willing/able to lend, or only at higher rates, and the lifeblood that keeps the global economy moving is clogging up--some mortgages default, so investment firms lend less at higher rates, which makes it harder and more expensive for firms otherwise unassociated with the mortgage industry to meet expenses, including basic supply chain items and payroll, which leads to hiring freezes and fewer big purchases and investments first, then layoffs and plant closures, a declining tax base, increased cost of goods and services that are harder to afford by a public impacted by higher rates of unemployment and inflation, more people default on their mortgages and on and on.

I've heard a lot of people touting the "well I made good choices" or "my company only invested in THINGS" so they'll be ok, or they can ride out a few bad months. The problem is that the above scenario very quickly spirals into something that gets a whole lot worse for a lot of months before there is any hope of getting better, and it won't just be the "bad guys" that are impacted early or hardest. In an economy as globally interconnected as ours this will have global effects, not just national ones.

Sure, a public works project is more palatable--I'd much rather have my money invested in an enduring benefit than the "bad investments" the Treasury will be buying up--but sadly, if we've under-regulated the financial industry, we've probably over-regulated government contracting. A major Public Works project would take years to even get started and would not inject liquidity into the markets at all in the short term. If we'd started such a project 10 years ago we might now be reaping the benefits, and if Obama is elected I hope that we will still begin such an undertaking, but if some sort of rescue package doesn't pass it is a good bet that even if it bolsters Obama's chances of getting elected, it will profoundly undermine his ability to accomplish many of the things we care about.

Don't kid yourself. This is bad. The roughly 10% plunge that the stock market took today was based on a reasonable assumption that this thing will still pass, relatively soon. If it becomes clear that there will be no rescue, expect the market to lose closer to 50%. If that happens it will not just affect people who made bad choices, it will affect all of us, and our children. It will most certainly affect our parents who expect to draw on their retirement funds sooner than later and will not have the benefit of 30 years recovery in the markets. In a contracting economy, it is often the most senior employees, who get the biggest paychecks, that get laid off. If millions of late fifty or early sixty somethings lose their jobs a few years shy of retirement we'll both see a booming burden on their children who won't let them live in the poorhouse, and a faster than planned for crunch on social security.

If this isn't a happy enough scenario, all of the research that I have done on globalization and poverty tells me that as world markets start to collapse, there will be a swift and steady rise in violence and political instability around the world, and that while it may not start in the U.S., we won't be immune, and that many, many people who see their livelihoods go up in smoke globally will hold the U.S. culpable, and will distinguish little between Main and Wall Street. In the 1930s Wall St. was much more removed from the economies of Riyadh and Islamabad than today.

People are justifiably pissed. I am too. We have no good reason to trust the current administration. I agree wholeheartedly that any plan that is passed must have safeguards and accountability. In an email I received from my Congressman, who voted "No" today, Mark Udall writes:

I've always said that any response to this economic crisis must adhere to four core principles: no blank checks for the mistakes of Wall Street and the Bush Administration; a real crackdown on excessive executive compensation; help for small businesses and Main Street America; and strong taxpayer protections.

Unfortunately, while today's bailout proposal came closer to satisfying these principles than the blank check originally sought by the administration, it remains an incomplete response.

This bill does nothing to begin the fundamental reform that is needed to fix the broken financial system that led us to this crisis. Washington is painfully slow to make fundamental reforms except in times of extreme duress and real public outrage, so we must make sure this opportunity leads to real reforms to the laws governing our markets, financial institutions, and their regulation.

I cannot accept a solution that risks $700 billion to bail out the boat, but does nothing to patch up the hole.

Fine. I want a better bill too. But I don't want political posturing, or a "stick it to 'em" attitude.

Perhaps, just as too many trusted the "fundamentals" of the economy to sort themselves out, we've also been a bit too willing to trust in our political system to work itself out over time. This is not just about holding the fat cats accountable, though there will be more of that in the years ahead, it is also about recognizing the breadth and reach of the US economy around the world, and the financial and political catastrophe that will follow if we cross our arms and say "so there, take that." We may not be the first to feel the effects, but many people who were not part of the problem will lose everything. When that happens they will be angry, and grow desperate.

If we head down that path, you can forget about that public works project because we'll be tying up every dollar we have to try to staunch the bleeding fighting wars that can't be won.

That's not the future I want.

I wish we were in a different predicament. I wish we had leaders that hadn't lied and squandered our prosperity, but I'm not willing to risk further dooming our future to spite Bush or his cronies. It is time to stand up and take responsibility. Failure to pass real relief will be the ultimate gesture in cutting off our nose to spite our face. Worse, it will further demonstrate our disregard for the impact of our dominance on the rest of the world.

"Let them eat cake" has its consequences.

I want a great public works project, a burgeoning new economy, and leaders we can trust. I also want Obama to be able to actually accomplish at least some of his proposals. If the market tanks, I don't think any of those things will happen.

We have an opportunity in November to teach a lesson to those who got us into this mess. We can vote out everyone who has opposed the kinds of safeguards and fiscal reforms that might have averted this catastrophe. Right now, though, all of our representatives are running scared. They think they'll get voted out not for what they did yesterday, but for what they will do tomorrow (or Thursday...).

As Nate Silver points out:

This was predictable, I suppose, but it's remarkable to see how strong a relationship there is between today's failed vote on the bailout and the competitive nature of different House races.

Among 38 incumbent congressmen in races rated as "toss-up" or "lean" bySwing State Project, just 8 voted for the bailout as opposed to 30 against: a batting average of .211.

By comparison, the vote among congressmen who don't have as much to worry about was essentially even: 197 for, 198 against.

I hope tomorrow you'll join me in calling our representatives and telling them to work their butts off to find something they can vote FOR. The American people may not like it, but we are not wholly blameless in this mess. It is time to be responsible and clean it up. Tell your representatives that your vote in November will be decided by the track record they already have, and that you expect them to pass a bill, with appropriate safeguards, and pass it soon.

Ultimately, voting against some financial rescue will be like standing around railing at the city government for cutting first responder funding while the town burns instead of forming a chain gang to save it.

We can, and should, vote the suckers out who created this mess. We should also show them what true leadership looks like by making sure it gets fixed.

Let's leave Obama a little something to work with.